Urgent Need : Pres Arroyo Crisis Management Plan

[abcxyz]

there is no escaping it - its all over all types of media. there is obviously an urgent need for a CRISIS MANAGEMENT PLAN for the arroyo presidency and the arroyo family. with juan santos in the cabinet, we would expect this type of plan should be in place a long time ago. but based on what has been happening, it appears they forgot putting up one.

so, lets hear it from pr, advertising and marketing practitioners - what would your crisis management plan be?

footnote : DIVORCE, unfortunately cannot be part of the plan. it is not legal in the philippines.

[ariseo]

She, herself can address it. What for?.

[omeng]

ang kailangan ni ate glo ay himala.

kaya lang.. walang himalang magaganap.. milagro lang. :D

[aticus]

I addressed this in part in the Local and Foreign Issues forum. :) I believe her PR team is doing a very bad job.

What she needs is to address the country directly, stating, in no uncertain terms, that the tape is a forgery, that she did NOT cheat, that she is not afraid of anyone assessing the authenticity of the tape, and that she would want all her critics to focus on the more pressing needs of the country: poverty, job creation, etc. There is no other way for her to win this credibility battle.

As for her family, they should all do the same thing. Come forward, with sincere looks on their faces, and swear before God and country that they are innocent of all charges, and they welcome all inquiries/probes. They should challenge their accusers to come forward and take oaths before any investigative body, and to provide proof of their claims, beyond their own statements. Photographs, ledgers, signed documents, etc.

I believe they're guilty, but I believe they can better handle this situation if they at least pretended better than they are currently doing. Right now, they are reacting in the wrong way... threatening arrests, punishments, etc. for anyone who even says a bad thing against them. They even go as far as to try to suppress the press through bodies like the NTC. All this reeks of fear, and makes everyone start to suspect that the allegations could be true.

[abcxyz]

their action or non action seem to signal the allegations are all true. no hard denials or rebuttals. no actions at wanting to find the truth. so far thats where they are right now.

so the first action is to put a team to face the issues squarely. or think up of a hail mary plan if the allegations are true.

they need a spokesperson, A NEW ONE, PLEASE!!!!!!!! someone who has clout and well respected. someone smart who can knock heads around. someone with credibility. and please.......only 1 spokesperson! i would nominate ex health sec dayrit. he does not have all of those qualifications but he has some of them.

[Nazgul]

She won't flatly deny it because that would put her in a corner and if she has been shown to have lied, she will be in worse trouble. I agree that is is her on the tape but it is still in the country's best interests for her to stay in power - especially now that the macroeconomic fiscal situation is actually improving and she has some capable managers working for her - parayno and licuanan to name two.
Dayrit would not be a good choice - even when he was in the health department, he was more politician than physician.

[aticus]

I agree on the part about changing spokespersons. It would be good if she got someone with clout among her supporters, like the Church. I can't think of any, off the top of my head, who would fit the bill AND would agree to do this job. I honestly think that most Pinoys believe she's guilty already.

Heck, if she had enough money, she should hire Bill Clinton. ;) He's the master at getting out of a jam. Best I've ever seen.

[aticus]

She won't flatly deny it because that would put her in a corner and if she has been shown to have lied, she will be in worse trouble. I agree that is is her on the tape but it is still in the country's best interests for her to stay in power - especially now that the macroeconomic fiscal situation is actually improving and she has some capable managers working for her - parayno and licuanan to name two.
Dayrit would not be a good choice - even when he was in the health department, he was more politician than physician.

I respectfully disagree... she MUST flatly deny it, no matter what. Deny, deny until she dies... seriously. There is no other way. Look at the scenarios:

1) She doesn't deny it, and later it is shown to be true... whatever she says after that is useless, and she will be skewered by the public;

2) She denies it, and later it is shown to be true... she can still deny it, and demand to see absolute proof. She can influence her friends in the congress and the judiciary to believe HER scientific findings and declare the tape a forgery... people will be upset, but will forget it after a while. It was a big bomb, but not a nuclear one. Life goes on.

She should just keep on vehemently denying it. One major press con should do. Get it out in the open that she flatly denies it, and her supporters will be more satisfied. Her enemies never will be, but that's not who she's fighting for. Right now she just REEKS of guilt... she has to at least come out and look straight in the camera and say, in a sincere voice, that she is innocent. That will go a lot further than having Ong arrested, or suppressing the media.

[Ventada]

The question is if most people think she is already guilty, then why is it that no uprising has taken place? Perhaps majority of the people still finds it in their best interest for the president to stay in power?

If I was PR Manager, I'd suggest that she present her accomplishments, mention juicy figures, where the economy is heading and what awaits Filipinos should she stay in power ... then admit to the guilt of the tape. Let the people decide. If my intuitions are right, there will be no people power.

No need to fear for an impeachment. The tapes are illegal anyway and cannot be used as evidence.

[aticus]

^ refers to post above...

Hmmm... interesting idea. Admit to cheating in the last election. This might actually work, except that I think GMA has too much pride to let her Presidency be remembered as a sham. I've never seen a Filipino politician EVER admit cheating, and I have serious doubts she'll ever be the first.

[abcxyz]

Dayrit would not be a good choice - even when he was in the health department, he was more politician than physician.THAT is exactly why i think dayrit can be a good spokesperson for this issue.

[rabbaddal]

Sometime ago, I started this thread about bad policies that have turned away investors and stifled the growth of jobs and income.

Policies that Threaten Jobs and Incomes (http://www.pinoyexchange.com/forums/showthread.php?t=212531)

At the end of the day, no amount of PR-ing or “crisis management” can cover up the lingering effects of bad policies. What we are witnessing today are symptoms of flawed governance brought about by the refusal to implement reforms needed to turn around our country’s fortunes. What ought to have been done was clear to the presidency from the start and yet GMA did nothing more than to resort to one clever PR tactic after another to distract public attention away from the real issue. First, it was Abu Sayyaf, then it was “fiscal crisis”. Now we have jueteng.

At this point, another “crisis management” strategy would do nothing more than to cover up for bad policies. Granted that she really did cheat in the elections or that her family was involved in jueteng, the only way for GMA to have convincingly beat these scandals was to accumulate political capital and doing that requires nothing less than a credible track record - something she does not have.

[abcxyz]

perhaps there is a confusion on the meaning of the term "crisis management". you have one when you are in "crisis" like the one gma is having at the moment. you have something that is critical to your survival or one that has dramatically put you in a very bad light and you want to "manage" the situation, if not to "turn it around".

crisis management in this thread is a-politcal, thats precisely why this thread was started here. its a place to talk about something relevant, on-going and strictly in terms of crisis management, a branch of marketing/communications that few actually practice in the country.

it is not meant to "cover up" bad policies. it is simply meant to have strategies, tools and actions to manage the two crisis issues : jueteng involvement and the audio tapes.

[abcxyz]

The question is if most people think she is already guilty, then why is it that no uprising has taken place? Perhaps majority of the people still finds it in their best interest for the president to stay in power? sorry to say but i do not think pinoys are that politically mature nor do we have political savvy to think that way.

this was how i answered that question in lafi (http://www.pinoyexchange.com/forums/showpost.php?p=8997500&postcount=6)

bottom line, i think the reason there is no edsa 3 yet is because pinoys do not feel they have been insulted (yet) in a personal way. gma needs to screw up big time on her own for it to happen. she needs a "do not open the little brown envelope" kind of stupidity.

[rabbaddal]

perhaps there is a confusion on the meaning of the term "crisis management".

No, there is no confusion. My post was very clear that there is no substitute for accumulating political capital through credibility. In plain marketing parlance, product and packaging go hand in hand. One cannot communicate a better image of a product for whatever reason (in this case, to weather 2 simultaneous crises) if the product itself has continually demonstrated to be defective or of inferior quality.

crisis management in this thread is a-politcal, thats precisely why this thread was started here.

How can the discussion on crisis management in this thread be a-political when it is being applied to a political context? An effective crisis management strategy for the GMA administration, if there really is one, cannot be crafted on purely PR/marcom grounds. It cannot disregard the politics behind the different stakeholders whose issues need to be addressed by whatever strategies are being formed.

it is not meant to "cover up" bad policies. it is simply meant to have strategies, tools and actions to manage the two crisis issues : jueteng involvement and the audio tapes.

It becomes a tool to cover up for bad policies if there is no effort to fix the root problems after one crisis after another have blown over. Jueteng involvement and the audio tapes are not the first crises that the GMA administration had to face. There was EDSA 3, the strong showing of FPJ in the last elections, Abu Sayyaf, etc. And crisis after crisis different quarters ranging from economists, the business community and now, even the PR community (those folks who at first offered to fix her deteriorating image with the public) have advised the administration to push for policy improvements in order to give it better credibility with its constituents and avert further crises in the future, and implicitly, to make it less dependent on crisis management.

In last night’s Dateline on ANC, Prof. Felipe Miranda clearly pointed out that there is only so much more PR that people can take. Filipinos are increasingly becoming more and more cynical because the reality is that no positive results have developed after previous crises have blown over. The only remaining strategy is to build credibility by producing actual positive results that are meaningful to constituents. This would give the administration the political capital to push for even more policy improvements. Had this been done long ago, the current jueteng and audio tape scandals would be nothing more than mere distractions.

[aticus]

I think, rabbaddal, that you and abcxyz are not really talking about the same thing. I agree with your point regarding the substance of political capital coming from good policies. I also agree that because of GMA's mismanagement, she doesn't have the capital needed to truly weather this storm.

However, I think the original intent of the thread was to ask what to do NOW, given the situation now, regardless of whether it will be a long-term solution or not. In other words, if this is truly the Titanic... how much longer can we keep it afloat? And what do we have to do to keep it floating that little bit longer?

Ultimately, I think her legacy is doomed. I believe she is guilty. I believe her family is guilty. And I believe that the majority of Filipino people, regardless of what happens from now on, will not remember her too kindly. She is but a shadow of her father, and I believe that the shadow is about to give way to the light of truth.

I don't know if she'll be impeached or if there'll be another popular uprising (I doubt it), but since I don't particularly like Noli de Castro as President, I will go the Machiavellian route and hope that she at least gets to finish her term, doomed as it may be.

[rabbaddal]

I think, rabbaddal, that you and abcxyz are not really talking about the same thing.

However, I think the original intent of the thread was to ask what to do NOW, given the situation now, regardless of whether it will be a long-term solution or not. In other words, if this is truly the Titanic... how much longer can we keep it afloat? And what do we have to do to keep it floating that little bit longer?


I don’t think I deviated from the intent of this thread. My point is that any strategy - even an ad hoc strategy - cannot disregard what has transpired in the past and should take into account all angles of the issue. We are coming from a position where the product being packaged / presented has continuously proven itself to be faulty and defective in reality. This has to be acknowledged first, and preferably be fixed, before a credible strategy can be put together. Otherwise, those people who are being targeted by whatever strategy that is being proposed are only going to become more cynical. Those PR practitioners who initially offered their services to help GMA repair her image belatedly realized this problem where there is a disconnect between reality and what it being presented.

Ultimately, I think her legacy is doomed. I believe she is guilty. I believe her family is guilty. And I believe that the majority of Filipino people, regardless of what happens from now on, will not remember her too kindly. She is but a shadow of her father, and I believe that the shadow is about to give way to the light of truth.

I don't know if she'll be impeached or if there'll be another popular uprising (I doubt it), but since I don't particularly like Noli de Castro as President, I will go the Machiavellian route and hope that she at least gets to finish her term, doomed as it may be.

Former UP president Nemenzo and Prof. Benito Lim wagered that whatever strategy GMA pursues – keeping silent, admitting or denying – she will not be unseated from the presidency. The greater population cannot find a suitable alternative to her and will come to terms with having to keep her in office. This is something that GMA probably knows by now. As much as we are all dismayed by her refusal to comment on the phone conversation and the evasive way she has handled her family’s alleged jueteng involvement, it is possible that she is playing her cards correctly. If keeping her president and letting her finish her term is the ultimate objective, then I don’t think there is much to worry about for now.

But the bigger question is what happens after. Nemenzo and Lim think that she has become ineffective and will simply coast along until she finishes her term. She will resort to distracting Filipinos with minor issues to make it appear that she is a “working president” but she will not be able to move the country towards the bigger objective of improving quality of life for Filipinos. I, on the other hand, think that she was simply coasting along from the very start. Even if these 2 simultaneous crises (jueteng + wiretapping) didn’t happen, it was pretty clear that she didn’t plan to make any policy improvements that would have made a positive legacy for her. This is beyond any crisis management solution to fix.

[j_l_uy]

I, on the other hand, think that she was simply coasting along from the very start.

I share the same beliefs, but I am still hoping she would change.

To be honest, I don't read much about our country's politics since I am really sadden when I start reading about it. However, (based on my observation) ill try to offer a "crisis" management plan to answer abcxyz's question.

I have notice that current administration often used another "problem" to cover the previous one. Since gloria is pretty secure with her position, i think the current issue might be "forgotten" if gloria simply keeps silent and after a few months or so... she can create or have another "issue" troubling our country. If given enough media coverage, I believe this new "issue" can cover the old one (like the previous other "crisis" e.g. murder of reporters, military scandals and others), thus having the current crisis contained (but sadly saying not solve).

[rabbaddal]

I have notice that current administration often used another "problem" to cover the previous one. Since gloria is pretty secure with her position, i think the current issue might be "forgotten" if gloria simply keeps silent and after a few months or so... she can create or have another "issue" troubling our country. If given enough media coverage, I believe this new "issue" can cover the old one (like the previous other "crisis" e.g. murder of reporters, military scandals and others), thus having the current crisis contained (but sadly saying not solve).

This seems to be her gameplan - using one distraction after another to cover up for her inability to produce results. Hence, the importance of going back to what transpired in the past before dwelling on the "here-and-nows". Unfortunately the administration's strategy would inevitably lead the administration to either conjure or wait for a problem to materialize to take attention away from the present problem. It also seems like this new pair of crises might actually benefit GMA in the sense that she is now conveniently too busy to work on the reforms that matter.

[abcxyz]

However, I think the original intent of the thread was to ask what to do NOW, given the situation now, regardless of whether it will be a long-term solution or not. In other words, if this is truly the Titanic... how much longer can we keep it afloat? And what do we have to do to keep it floating that little bit longer?yes, you are right about where this thread intends to be. i like the analogy of the titanic - we need a crisis management plan to save the titanic from sinking and we got a few weeks left to save it.

crisis mangement plans are done, well only during crisis. and crisis typically occur unexpectedly. all the other brand images and consumer goodwill or in this the political capital earned will of course be taken into consideration, and in fact a key input. but the marketing objevtive is less of brand building but really more of save the titanic.

moving on..

some key questions the crisis management practitioner will need to answer are these :

1. should she directly admit or directly deny that she is the woman on the tape?

2. should she pro-actively and aggressively seek the "truth" or not ? or just sit out and develope plan-Bs? she can just wait for the opposition to self implode?

3. should she directly admit or directly deny that her family is involved in jueteng?

4. should she pro-actively and aggressively seek the truth on jueteng or not? or just sit it out and develope plan Bs? she can just wait for this to die down?

5. obviously, to save the titanic, she needs to draw from some goodwill or political capital that she can use an anchor. does she have political capital left? what are these? if none, where can she get some? and how to use them?

lets get some discussions on these.

[aticus]

some key questions the crisis management practitioner will need to answer are these :

1. should she directly admit or directly deny that she is the woman on the tape?

She should admit it is her voice, since it is. But she should claim that the tape was doctored.

2. should she pro-actively and aggressively seek the "truth" or not ? or just sit out and develope plan-Bs? she can just wait for the opposition to self implode?

She should make a grand show of asigning an "independent" fact-finding commission, probably in the form of a Congressional inquiry, into the tapes. That buys her time, plus it gives her a chance to get her allies on board. She should then bribe some key opposition congressmen to join her camp, and ultimately find her innocent. I think some of them are, in fact, posturing... hoping for a big pay-off in the end.

3. should she directly admit or directly deny that her family is involved in jueteng?

She should deny this. This is a killer point... it is the exact same reason Erap was ousted, so there's no way she should admit this, otherwise all her support from "civil society" would be lost. Again, form an independent commission... and bribe the hell out of them.

4. should she pro-actively and aggressively seek the truth on jueteng or not? or just sit it out and develope plan Bs? she can just wait for this to die down?

See answers above.

5. obviously, to save the titanic, she needs to draw from some goodwill or political capital that she can use an anchor. does she have political capital left? what are these? if none, where can she get some? and how to use them?

She has none on her own. Her only hope is to pay off some more "credible" people to support her, such as key media figures and even some corrupt church leaders. Heck, Noli de Castro regularly used to ask for bribes when he was a media man, and the practice hasn't stopped with him. If she gets the top TV and radio people to support her, it would be a start.

The problem comes from her enemies... many of whom are from show business. Erap still has loyal friends in the industry, so I don't know how she can combat them. She's lucky Susan Roces hasn't publicly called for her ouster yet...

The key here is to do damage control by consolidating power through bribes and favors. She will be very weak after this... and the sharks circling her will now be in charge of her Presidency, as she needs them more than ever.

[rabbaddal]

yes, you are right about where this thread intends to be. i like the analogy of the titanic - we need a crisis management plan to save the titanic from sinking and we got a few weeks left to save it.

crisis mangement plans are done, well only during crisis. and crisis typically occur unexpectedly.

I disagree. Any plan or strategy cannot be effective without carefully formulating and defining the problem. And this process includes exhaustive and more detailed procedures such as drilling down into root causes, if there are any, and looking into alternative plausible definitions. Albeit the urgency of the present situation means that there is only a very short timeframe to get this important step done but that doesn’t negate the need to do this.

I also disagree with the Titanic analogy, if “Titanic” means the prospect of GMA being forced out of office. At least if we were to go by the feedback of experienced observers in the academe and media, it is unlikely that GMA will be forced to step down in a flurry of public hysteria a la EDSA 2. The elite and whatever is left of the middle class is already tired of people power. It is also unlikely that Congress will impeach GMA because politicians, by nature, would prefer to stick to the status quo if this would mean preserving them in power. Sure, there will be some wheeling and dealing (bribes and favors) in the background but the reality is that from the start, they are already inclined to keep GMA in power. If this were the case then GMA is probably doing the right thing now by keeping quiet about the issue and leave it to a later time (although Filipinos are obviously dismayed by this) and her crisis management advisers already know this. It would also render other questions about what else she ought to do moot and academic. But of course, since this is a discussion forum, all ideas are welcome.

Is it possible that there is an alternative problem calling for a different solution? Perhaps all the brouhaha over jueteng and electoral fraud are not really problems, but only symptoms of a bigger and more fundamental problem that is simply beyond what crisis management can repair, which is precisely the point I have made.

all the other brand images and consumer goodwill or in this the political capital earned will of course be taken into consideration, and in fact a key input. but the marketing objevtive is less of brand building but really more of save the titanic.


No. I clearly did not say that this was about brand image and consumer goodwill. I said the problem had more to do with an inferior product, not an inferior image or goodwill. I am not sure if you understood my post.

[rabbaddal]

The problem comes from her enemies... many of whom are from show business. Erap still has loyal friends in the industry, so I don't know how she can combat them. She's lucky Susan Roces hasn't publicly called for her ouster yet...


This becomes a problem only if showbiz personalities can convince the masses to take up arms and resort to violence. This is unlikely though. The masses do not have the sophistication (sublimeness and wit) to launch a peaceful people power movement of their own.


The key here is to do damage control by consolidating power through bribes and favors. She will be very weak after this... and the sharks circling her will now be in charge of her Presidency, as she needs them more than ever.

I don’t think this is an added problem because she has already demonstrated no keen interest in pushing for a political platform anyway. Like Profs. Namanzo and Lim already said, she is just coasting along. If that were the case then she would have no need for political muscle.

[abcxyz]

I disagree. Any plan or strategy cannot be effective without carefully formulating and defining the problem. And this process includes exhaustive and more detailed procedures such as drilling down into root causes, if there are any, and looking into alternative plausible definitions. Albeit the urgency of the present situation means that there is only a very short timeframe to get this important step done but that doesn’t negate the need to do this.

I also disagree with the Titanic analogy, if “Titanic” means the prospect of GMA being forced out of office. At least if we were to go by the feedback of experienced observers in the academe and media, it is unlikely that GMA will be forced to step down in a flurry of public hysteria a la EDSA 2. The elite and whatever is left of the middle class is already tired of people power. It is also unlikely that Congress will impeach GMA because politicians, by nature, would prefer to stick to the status quo if this would mean preserving them in power. Sure, there will be some wheeling and dealing (bribes and favors) in the background but the reality is that from the start, they are already inclined to keep GMA in power. If this were the case then GMA is probably doing the right thing now by keeping quiet about the issue and leave it to a later time (although Filipinos are obviously dismayed by this) and her crisis management advisers already know this. It would also render other questions about what else she ought to do moot and academic. But of course, since this is a discussion forum, all ideas are welcome.

Is it possible that there is an alternative problem calling for a different solution? Perhaps all the brouhaha over jueteng and electoral fraud are not really problems, but only symptoms of a bigger and more fundamental problem that is simply beyond what crisis management can repair, which is precisely the point I have made.



No. I clearly did not say that this was about brand image and consumer goodwill. I said the problem had more to do with an inferior product, not an inferior image or goodwill. I am not sure if you understood my post.i agree the product is inferior, but rebuilding the inferior product is not the identified task of this thread. the identified task of the thread is : save the titanic or to follow the analogy, manage the crisis in the storm and raging sea and the ship so that the titanic does not sink. but inferior product is a key input but given the present scenario, but rebuilding it is not the task at hand. it can of course benefit from the crisis management efforts, but it is not the thread's main objective.

[abcxyz]

She should admit it is her voice, since it is. But she should claim that the tape was doctored. She should make a grand show of asigning an "independent" fact-finding commission, probably in the form of a Congressional inquiry, into the tapes. That buys her time, plus it gives her a chance to get her allies on board. She should then bribe some key opposition congressmen to join her camp, and ultimately find her innocent. I think some of them are, in fact, posturing... hoping for a big pay-off in the end. She should deny this. This is a killer point... it is the exact same reason Erap was ousted, so there's no way she should admit this, otherwise all her support from "civil society" would be lost. Again, form an independent commission... and bribe the hell out of them. See answers above.

She has none on her own. Her only hope is to pay off some more "credible" people to support her, such as key media figures and even some corrupt church leaders. Heck, Noli de Castro regularly used to ask for bribes when he was a media man, and the practice hasn't stopped with him. If she gets the top TV and radio people to support her, it would be a start.

The problem comes from her enemies... many of whom are from show business. Erap still has loyal friends in the industry, so I don't know how she can combat them. She's lucky Susan Roces hasn't publicly called for her ouster yet...

The key here is to do damage control by consolidating power through bribes and favors. She will be very weak after this... and the sharks circling her will now be in charge of her Presidency, as she needs them more than ever.this silence may be the strategy to buy time to prepare the groundwork for the eventual offensive. she will need allies in congress and in the senate to make sure that if it comes to an impeachment vote, she wins it just like clinton did.

the key problem that she needs to focus on for the moment is -- she does not seem to have a very strong ally on her side at the moment. drilon seems to be playing it safe and not obviously on her side. de venecia is not as vocal as you would expect an ally ought to be. she needs someone with clout to defend her to keeo the wolves at bay.

foolish perhaps, but it appears the strategy being applied is similar to the pidal issue. do essentially nothing for now and wait for the opposition to implode or for interest to die down. it seems the strategy is not to do anything for now. (which makes me beleive the tapes and the jueteng are true.) in the pidal issue, the husband was figthing back. in this case there is no figthing back.

im shocked at how misreable the handling of the issues have been, considering that juan santos is her cabinet. nestle had very good experiences and teams handling this sort of things (crisis management).

[aticus]

Well, I suppose we're looking at things from two different points of view. I respectfully disagree with rabbaddal regarding the point of this thread... I believe it is more of a "stop-gap measure" thread rather than a "let's look at the root cause" sort of thread. If the point is to understand the underlying causes behind her problem, and to do some long-term fixing, then perhaps. But I can't see how, given the very same thing rabbaddal mentions regarding the inferiority of the product, that would ever be possible.

Look, we've all gone to the supermarket and bought a rotten banana. No amount of spinning will change that. We either eat the banana now, before it gets too rotten, or we wait till it's well-nigh indigestible. Asking what caused the banana to be rotten, or asking how to make the banana substantially more ripe is not going to help.

I do agree, however, that she will probably stay in power for a considerable length of time after this, and I actually support that, given the even worse alternatives.

[j_l_uy]

some key questions the crisis management practitioner will need to answer are these :

1. should she directly admit or directly deny that she is the woman on the tape?

2. should she pro-actively and aggressively seek the "truth" or not ? or just sit out and develope plan-Bs? she can just wait for the opposition to self implode?

3. should she directly admit or directly deny that her family is involved in jueteng?

4. should she pro-actively and aggressively seek the truth on jueteng or not? or just sit it out and develope plan Bs? she can just wait for this to die down?

5. obviously, to save the titanic, she needs to draw from some goodwill or political capital that she can use an anchor. does she have political capital left? what are these? if none, where can she get some? and how to use them?

lets get some discussions on these.

1. If I were gloria, I would also keep quite about this matter. Why? there are only three possible answers she can give. First is to say "yes" she was on the tape but it was change. If she answered this way, oppositions might counter by asking her to produce some evidence which is pretty hard unless she can have some character witness or another tape (which will be further questioned). This will only make matters worst, simply because it will help the current "issue" gather further coverage. Second is to say "no" and flatly say that she never made the call. This will receive more or less the same results as the first answer since the opposition would asked for evidence and the crisis would continue to grow. Third is to just keep quite. I think this answer is the best move simply because people do have different beliefs. Some like to believe that the tape is true while others dont, but most people (I think) still have doubts whether or not it is true (since they have not recieve any word from the president). By keeping quite (and asking the media to be quite), she could stay at the safe side for the moment and hopefully wait until the storm pass. If the issue did go to legislative bodies (senate and congress), gloria could use the time of being quite to stack evidence that supports her and keep oppositions from knowing what she would use to protect herself (and attack them). Thus, by keeping quite she also has the element of suprise on her side. I didn't include the answer that she would agree the tape is completely true, because that would be crazy answer. :rotflmao:

2. She should seek the truth and develop plans B. I wont comment on my beliefs concerning the tape (whether it is true or not) since I believe it is quite useless on this point, but if I were her... I would start acquiring some information that would help me defend myself (and hopefully find the complete truth in the process). As for the opposition, I still think they can't get their acts together to oust gloria so... how would they self implode if at the current moment they were never together against her?

3. Same answer as number 1. She should keep quite. I think gloria (herself) is smart enough to defend whatever allegations are thrown against her, but I can't say the same for her husband (and his friends). If (let us say) gloria starts taking for her husband, there might come a time that her husband was actually proven guilty (which I think would happen if he continues to speak) then that would definitely further damage her image (and presidential term). If she keeps quite and in time her husband was proven guilty, then she could simply wash her hands off the matter by ordering a full investigation on the matter (or putting her husband to jail). If her husband was not proven guilty, she could ask for a lot of media coverage and further put those against her to shame.

4. She should just wait for this to die down (the reasons are in answer number 3).

5. I still don't understand "how the 'titanic' is sinking". If you mean the philippine economy, I think gloria in her remaining term can at best only keep our economy afloat. If you mean her presidential position, I don't think it is sinking. I would say her presidentail position right now is going through very tough (and dangerous) waters , but I don't think it will result to her being ousted (at least with what is happening so far which is subject to change). As for the political goodwill or capital (or whatever you might to call it), I think being president of the coutry entitles gloria with enourmous amount of "domestic" political goodwill/ capital. To add to that, she still has support of America, thus (at least for the moment) I think she also still hava a decent amount of "international" political goodwill/capital. (Sad to say... I don't think our country is having the same image due to downgrading and several other reports).

[aticus]

Additionally...

The point of most good crisis management plans is to prepare a company/organization/candidate for the long-term, by substantially improving both the image (always) and the substance (when necessary) of the product in the eyes of the public. Very rarely would you get a product with little substance that can last a long time purely on the basis of marketing razzle-dazzle (Coca-Cola comes to mind here...). So, in a perfect world, GMA should be worrying about the substance of her policies, about political capital, etc., etc. because she's not only supposed to be worrying about the rest of her term, but about the political goodwill (or lack thereof) that her political party will face after she is gone.

I don't think Philippine politics works that way, though. This is really more of a "one-shot, big shot!" kind of deal... you take what you can when you're in power, because once you reach the top, there is no other way to move but down. She is President now, and she won't ever be again. She only has a few more years to worry about. What can she do to last those few years? This is why I used the Titanic analogy. If she can somehow stretch this thing along until the end of her term, through razzle-dazzle PR, then she's homefree... because we all know these tapes are legally inadmissible anyway, and once she's out of office, what legal remedy would her opponents have to her cheating?

[mac_bolan00]

if you go by track record, whoever her crisis manager is must be damn-good:

the edsa3 rally
the jose pidal case
the 2004 election
the jueteng scandal
the cold treatment of the garci tapes not just by GMA but by the foreign press and pulse-asia

what more can you ask for?

[j_l_uy]

I don't think Philippine politics works that way, though. This is really more of a "one-shot, big shot!" kind of deal...

I would agree with you on this matter. As for the titanic analogy, well.. I guess you can also present it that way.

[aticus]

if you go by track record, whoever her crisis manager is must be damn-good:

the edsa3 rally
the jose pidal case
the 2004 election
the jueteng scandal
the cold treatment of the garci tapes not just by GMA but by the foreign press and pulse-asia

what more can you ask for?

I think this is what rabbaddal meant, though, by the lack of a product. All her crisis managers did was to buy her time, at the expense of the economy and her long-term credibility. Just so I don't contradict myself, however, I must say that if the point is a Machiavellian "end justifies the means" situation, then her lasting in power, purely from her selfish point of view, justified all the bad things she's done so far.

Her PR gang have gotten her this far... I suppose we will now see if they can get her to the finish line... limping though she may be.

Lastly, I do feel that the previous crises were still manageable because there was no egregious violation of public trust. Everyone in the Philippines expected her to cheat, for instance... some demanding that she do it, just so they wouldn't get an FPJ Presidency (in hindsight... what a blessing... imagine Pres. de Castro???). THIS crisis, however, is different because her voice was caught on tape. The fact that it's now the most popular ringtone in the Philippines means that, unlike the other crises, this one won't go away too soon.

[rabbaddal]

i agree the product is inferior, but rebuilding the inferior product is not the identified task of this thread. the identified task of the thread is : save the titanic or to follow the analogy, manage the crisis in the storm and raging sea and the ship so that the titanic does not sink. but inferior product is a key input but given the present scenario, but rebuilding it is not the task at hand. it can of course benefit from the crisis management efforts, but it is not the thread's main objective.

The fact that the issue of the twin crises was brought up in this thread set the stage for further, more exhaustive discussion on all aspects of the issue. I think there is room in this thread for that. And, like I mentioned earlier, any plan or strategy would have to go through a problem identification and formulation process before it can be effective even if the purpose of the plan is to solve an urgent problem. How does one save something without understanding what he is trying to save? One would end up shooting blindly in the dark.

[rabbaddal]

Well, I suppose we're looking at things from two different points of view. I respectfully disagree with rabbaddal regarding the point of this thread... I believe it is more of a "stop-gap measure" thread rather than a "let's look at the root cause" sort of thread.

My reply above.

If the point is to understand the underlying causes behind her problem, and to do some long-term fixing, then perhaps.

Understanding and formulating the problem, yes. For the purpose of doing some long-term fixing? Maybe, but not necessarily. Like what I mentioned, even if the plan were to address an urgent situation, it would still have to go through exhaustive problem formulation / determination albeit a much shorter timeframe to accomplish this task.

But I can't see how, given the very same thing rabbaddal mentions regarding the inferiority of the product, that would ever be possible.


If we see how GMA is playing her cards, I think this is precisely what her crisis managers are doing right now.

Look, we've all gone to the supermarket and bought a rotten banana. No amount of spinning will change that. We either eat the banana now, before it gets too rotten, or we wait till it's well-nigh indigestible. Asking what caused the banana to be rotten, or asking how to make the banana substantially more ripe is not going to help.


Yes it will help (help GMA weather the storm, that is), and I think this has already influenced the way GMA’s crisis managers are advising her on how to deal with this issue. They have already come to terms with the way GMA does not have credibility or political capital.

Lastly, I do feel that the previous crises were still manageable because there was no egregious violation of public trust. Everyone in the Philippines expected her to cheat, for instance... some demanding that she do it, just so they wouldn't get an FPJ Presidency (in hindsight... what a blessing... imagine Pres. de Castro???). THIS crisis, however, is different because her voice was caught on tape. The fact that it's now the most popular ringtone in the Philippines means that, unlike the other crises, this one won't go away too soon.

But even if this one won’t go away soon, and the ringtones keep getting forwarded, it does not mean that her presidency is a Titanic. That is, if we define Titanic as the threat of GMA being unseated any time soon bec. of these twin crises.


She only has a few more years to worry about. What can she do to last those few years? This is why I used the Titanic analogy.

I thought the Titanic analogy was meant to connote the supposedly high possibility that GMA will be unseated by this unfortunate series of events. It also appears that some posters thought of it that way also.

[aticus]

My apologies for the Titanic confusion. I meant that reference to mean this: That since we know the ship is going to sink (in terms of inferior product, lack of credibility, etc.), is it possible to delay the sinking until a rescue ship arrives (i.e. until her term ends so she can retire in relative peace and luxury)?

By the Titanic, therefore, I meant her credibility, rather than her sitting as the physical President. But I understand the source of confusion, and I should have used a better analogy.

[ercole]

there is no escaping it - its all over all types of media. there is obviously an urgent need for a CRISIS MANAGEMENT PLAN for the arroyo presidency and the arroyo family. with juan santos in the cabinet, we would expect this type of plan should be in place a long time ago. but based on what has been happening, it appears they forgot putting up one.

so, lets hear it from pr, advertising and marketing practitioners - what would your crisis management plan be?

footnote : DIVORCE, unfortunately cannot be part of the plan. it is not legal in the philippines.


don't want to be the pessimist here, but i think it's already too late for her.
because of her own doing, gma is "damaged goods" already.
batbat-tin mo man *** ng duct-tape, she's gonna be bursting sooner or later. she had the opportunity to flat out deny the accusations. who cares about the truth? anyway, it can't save her. those accusations (jueteng-gate and garci tapes are very serious and urggh...her insolent attitude is unpardonable. an immature egg with a crack (in her case many ones); expecting still a swan to come out? her pr guys could offer everyone free chilis. that won't work. she can't recall those conversations like what the J&J did with tylenol. no kind of pr will work if it's not herself who acts.
gma, know thyself.

[abcxyz]

The fact that the issue of the twin crises was brought up in this thread set the stage for further, more exhaustive discussion on all aspects of the issue. I think there is room in this thread for that. And, like I mentioned earlier, any plan or strategy would have to go through a problem identification and formulation process before it can be effective even if the purpose of the plan is to solve an urgent problem. How does one save something without understanding what he is trying to save? One would end up shooting blindly in the dark.ok im fine with that. i did say the issues of weak or non-existent product quality should not be discussed. i did say it is a key input to the crisis management plan/action.

the titanic analogy i understand that to mean - gma's presidency is about to collapse, that may take one or several forms --- an impeachment hearing, a people power revolution edsa 3-type, or resignation (forced or unforced).

unlike shampoo or toothpaste, reformulation is not possinble in this case. she is who she is. and her record stands the way it is. the only kind of reformulation she can do is to actually DO GOOD FOR THE COUNTRY. launch programs and actions that will signal she is the good president and she deserves to finish her term.

AT THE SAME TIME, in fact i think this is more important, she needs to keep the wolves at bay. she must do something, ala-crisis management type of actions to prevent an impeachement trial, an edsa 3 event and the need to resign.

along these lines, we have identfied :

> the need to change spokesperson
> the need to get some political capital as startpoint
> the need to enroll allies

> and lots of plan b options

[abcxyz]

don't want to be the pessimist here, but i think it's already too late for her.
because of her own doing, gma is "damaged goods" already.
batbat-tin mo man *** ng duct-tape, she's gonna be bursting sooner or later. she had the opportunity to flat out deny the accusations. who cares about the truth? anyway, it can't save her. those accusations (jueteng-gate and garci tapes are very serious and urggh...her insolent attitude is unpardonable. an immature egg with a crack (in her case many ones); expecting still a swan to come out? her pr guys could offer everyone free chilis. that won't work. she can't recall those conversations like what the J&J did with tylenol. no kind of pr will work if it's not herself who acts.
gma, know thyself.being a true-blue marketing person (or hopelessly and stupidly romantic fool?) that i am , nothing is too late for marketing. anything but everything can be helped! wala pang people power, wala pang impeachment trial and she is not even thinking of resigning.

i have suggested a hail mary pass - you are all allowed to ****, but my suggestion is to STOP THE ERAP PLUNDER TRIAL, PARDON ERAP, SET THE DUDE FREE! now, wont that stop the titanic from sinking? or at least wont she earn some political capital from that?

(reminder : puking on your keyboard/computer will harm your keyboard/computer)

[aticus]

I think if they free Erap now it would make her lose all political capital she has (whatever little may be left, that is) with EVERYBODY. Erap will snicker that she caved in and that he was innocent... The Church will slam her for making a deal with the opposition... No one would respect her.

In a way, it might stop the salvos being fired by the opposition, but I still think that people will find a way to use it against her. These problems are no longer just being propped up by a zealous opposition... these are very real, and are being sustained by a disgruntled populace. Just wait till oil hits US$70 a barrel...

[abcxyz]

^^^ they should do some horse trading here. just to let erap off the hook without some kind of deal on gmas problems will be wasting everything. maybe the deal is to make the jueteng and election issues go away. how? well thats the tough part to crack.

side question - does erap have enough clout and enough political capital to be a factor here?

[aticus]

NOW she finally admits it's her voice. It's way too late in the day for this admission to save her image. What the heck is her PR team doing?

If this is the best they can come up with: "Yes, it was me, but I wasn't influencing anything because it was already decided because the exit polls said so..." then why the heck didn't they mention this sooner? Why let speculation run rampant? It just makes them look even guiltier.

Fire that PR team. Seriously.

[abcxyz]

yeah, they should have been fired a long time ago.

but lets give them the benefit of 10 tons of doubt - maybe they were buying time for something - preparing the stage for something. maybe its enrolling allies so that the impeachment does not happen, ala-clinton.

[abcxyz]

He said the other key members of Ermita's crisis team were Bunye, group head for mass media Cerge Remonde and political adviser Gabriel Claudio. all those people should be fired immediately. they did a real screw up job on eveything.

but now she has the upper hand, she must make the most of it, do something surprising and huge before she loses the upper hand. it will be gone very very quickly.

she must revamp the cabinet. announce some major changes. and some major programs. promote some generals. and keep congress and the senate happy.

the next challenges : street rallies and impeachment hearings.

[aticus]

I will now go on record as saying that even Bill Clinton wouldn't be able to extricate himself from the mess GMA is in. She is as politically dead as a dodo.

Her case will be used for many years by PR agencies and universities as an example of what NOT to do in terms of public relations.

[abcxyz]

i would sum up this total pr/communications failure in one sentence : TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE, FAILED LEADERSHIP they took their sweet time admitting it was her on the tape. that time lag gave the opposition some momentum to build up pressure, take the moral high ground and take the lead. not doing anything for too long meant arroyo allowed others to dictate the agenda, while it should have been her dictating and leading the agenda. and for the hell of me, why were there no counter moves???! nothing was done to deflect the attention of the people from the issues. she lost all the initiatives, it was all the opposition.

and i would put the blame squarely on arroyo. i think she decided on everything all along. i say that because it is very consistent with her presidency - no leadership, too much politics, not really tackling the real issues. even in the affairs of the state and the nation - too little, too late, failed leadership.

but i would still get the necks of all her advisers and pr people. they sucked big time.

on another note - the whole thing shows how weak the opposition is. they were unable to get the numbers when it mattered.