JDELEON
May 24, 2001, 12:27 PM
From the Financial Times, an article on a recent study by Goizueta MBA Professors (where I am studying) of the Maria Bartiromo Effect.
May Angels smile upon you,
Joe
Financial Times
May 17, 2001
By Alison Beard
Global Investing
p. 28
"Quantifying the Maria factor"
A recommendation by CNBC's Maria Bartiromo can move a stock 43 points inside a minute
Most investors realise that CNBC's Maria Bartiromo - known to fans on the trading floor as "Money Honey" - can move the market. A new academic study documents exactly how fast.
When Ms Bartiromo makes a favourable comment about a company during her regular "Midday Call" spot, its share price jumps an average of 60 points within a minute - 11
points in the first 15 seconds, 20 in the next 15 seconds, and 12 points in the remaining 30 seconds.
The findings may give extra ammunition to critics who argue that breathless 24-hour financial news commentary has increased market volatility and, often, inflated prices.
But the study also shows that investors can realise long-term profits from Ms Bartiromo's reports.
"There have been lots of stories about (media) hype, and people mindlessly buying, (but) that little pop it gets within that first minute . . . still seems to be there a month
afterward if there is no real reason it should come down," says Clifton Green, the associate professor of finance at Emory University's Goizueta School of Business who co-authored the study with fellow professor Jeffrey Busse.
Of course, only quick-fingered traders and devoted TV watchers can truly take advantage. "We have been trying to see if we can make a trade in 15 seconds, with mixed results," Prof Green added. But "it is possible for people who are sitting there all day long waiting for these things".
Ms Bartiromo's negative comments took as long as 15 minutes to be priced in but the drop was more significant - about 125 basis points, according to the study. "That's
consistent with what other studies (of investor behaviour) have found," Prof Green said. "It's harder to short a stock than it is to buy it."
The professors tracked 20 weeks of shows from June 16 to October 27 2000, a period when the market was slightly down. The study, which includes 344 of Ms Bartiromo's comments, is believed to be the first to examine television news's effect on stock prices.
Previous research has considered company press releases, analyst comments and newspaper articles. A 1984 study, for example, found that earnings information took between five and 15 minutes to be incorporated into a stock price.
But with print and even internet sources, there is no way to pinpoint when the majority of investors receive the information. "If it's on Dow Jones Newswire people can be
reading all day long. Here, either you see it or you don't," said Prof Green.
"The thing about TV is we can nail down precisely to the second when she talks about it," Prof Busse added. "She'll come on and say the name of a company, recommendations that an analyst is giving to clients or talking about people debunking rumours about missed earnings . . . They'll put the ticker on the screen and we watch the stock price from that moment."
The professors videotaped Midday Call and rated the reports as positive or negative, throwing out 20 they considered to be too neutral. Almost all the stocks mentioned were
on the NYSE or the Nasdaq but "they were all different shapes and sizes", Mr Green said.
He and Mr Busse then tracked price movements in 15-second increments from five minutes before the company was mentioned to a half-hour after. They also checked a month later to see if the 0.6-1.2 per cent price changes had held, compared with other stocks' performance through the same time period.
The professors picked CNBC, the top-rated financial news network that serves 77m US households, because they were fans.
But, why Ms Bartiromo?
"We first wanted to look at everything that was talked about when the market was open, but that was overwhelming, so we decided to use . . . the Midday Call," said Prof
Busse. "Maria typically talks about one or two companies . . . And she's the one that gets all the press."
The professors also measured the impact of Consuelo Mack, CNBC's regular morning reporter, but the results were not statistically significant. "I think Maria has more
of a following," Mr Busse said.
Indeed. A quick search of the internet turns up numerous fan web pages - from a Maria Bartiromo Stock Market Hairdex, which discerns market trends through the status of
Ms Bartiromo's coiffure, to a 36-line Ave Maria poem, including the stanzas: "Conveying the news/Your ongoing duty/ Pretty as a picture/What a business beauty/Broke tradition in broadcasting/Gave Market coverage a new twist/Attracted an audience/ For who could resist?"
Copyright: The Financial Times Limited
-end-
May Angels smile upon you,
Joe
Financial Times
May 17, 2001
By Alison Beard
Global Investing
p. 28
"Quantifying the Maria factor"
A recommendation by CNBC's Maria Bartiromo can move a stock 43 points inside a minute
Most investors realise that CNBC's Maria Bartiromo - known to fans on the trading floor as "Money Honey" - can move the market. A new academic study documents exactly how fast.
When Ms Bartiromo makes a favourable comment about a company during her regular "Midday Call" spot, its share price jumps an average of 60 points within a minute - 11
points in the first 15 seconds, 20 in the next 15 seconds, and 12 points in the remaining 30 seconds.
The findings may give extra ammunition to critics who argue that breathless 24-hour financial news commentary has increased market volatility and, often, inflated prices.
But the study also shows that investors can realise long-term profits from Ms Bartiromo's reports.
"There have been lots of stories about (media) hype, and people mindlessly buying, (but) that little pop it gets within that first minute . . . still seems to be there a month
afterward if there is no real reason it should come down," says Clifton Green, the associate professor of finance at Emory University's Goizueta School of Business who co-authored the study with fellow professor Jeffrey Busse.
Of course, only quick-fingered traders and devoted TV watchers can truly take advantage. "We have been trying to see if we can make a trade in 15 seconds, with mixed results," Prof Green added. But "it is possible for people who are sitting there all day long waiting for these things".
Ms Bartiromo's negative comments took as long as 15 minutes to be priced in but the drop was more significant - about 125 basis points, according to the study. "That's
consistent with what other studies (of investor behaviour) have found," Prof Green said. "It's harder to short a stock than it is to buy it."
The professors tracked 20 weeks of shows from June 16 to October 27 2000, a period when the market was slightly down. The study, which includes 344 of Ms Bartiromo's comments, is believed to be the first to examine television news's effect on stock prices.
Previous research has considered company press releases, analyst comments and newspaper articles. A 1984 study, for example, found that earnings information took between five and 15 minutes to be incorporated into a stock price.
But with print and even internet sources, there is no way to pinpoint when the majority of investors receive the information. "If it's on Dow Jones Newswire people can be
reading all day long. Here, either you see it or you don't," said Prof Green.
"The thing about TV is we can nail down precisely to the second when she talks about it," Prof Busse added. "She'll come on and say the name of a company, recommendations that an analyst is giving to clients or talking about people debunking rumours about missed earnings . . . They'll put the ticker on the screen and we watch the stock price from that moment."
The professors videotaped Midday Call and rated the reports as positive or negative, throwing out 20 they considered to be too neutral. Almost all the stocks mentioned were
on the NYSE or the Nasdaq but "they were all different shapes and sizes", Mr Green said.
He and Mr Busse then tracked price movements in 15-second increments from five minutes before the company was mentioned to a half-hour after. They also checked a month later to see if the 0.6-1.2 per cent price changes had held, compared with other stocks' performance through the same time period.
The professors picked CNBC, the top-rated financial news network that serves 77m US households, because they were fans.
But, why Ms Bartiromo?
"We first wanted to look at everything that was talked about when the market was open, but that was overwhelming, so we decided to use . . . the Midday Call," said Prof
Busse. "Maria typically talks about one or two companies . . . And she's the one that gets all the press."
The professors also measured the impact of Consuelo Mack, CNBC's regular morning reporter, but the results were not statistically significant. "I think Maria has more
of a following," Mr Busse said.
Indeed. A quick search of the internet turns up numerous fan web pages - from a Maria Bartiromo Stock Market Hairdex, which discerns market trends through the status of
Ms Bartiromo's coiffure, to a 36-line Ave Maria poem, including the stanzas: "Conveying the news/Your ongoing duty/ Pretty as a picture/What a business beauty/Broke tradition in broadcasting/Gave Market coverage a new twist/Attracted an audience/ For who could resist?"
Copyright: The Financial Times Limited
-end-